The oil reduction during the libyan war 2012
Reinforced expectations that the supply of oil during the last month (September / August); It seems the Transitional National Assembly in Libya, it has strengthened its control of the reins of power in Libya, and plans to resume production Libyan pre-war levels of $ 1.6 million barrels a day, after a period of a complete stop. At the same time, looming on the horizon are growing fears of a global financial crisis and recession again and check with the downturn in global equity markets by 15-20 percent since the beginning of August Accordingly, it is expected the decline in demand for oil, despite the fact that the International Energy Agency has not entered only minor modifications up to date on the previous forecast.
The head of the Crescent Petroleum, Badr Jafar: «Oil prices oil reduction during the libyan war are still coherent at the level of $ 100 a barrel, despite the continuing series of bad economic news on the global level, and the possible return of Libyan oil production», explaining the reasons behind it.
The «in 2008, Brent crude was down about 77 percent within six months, compared with the highest level in July 2008, when a record $ 140 a barrel. One might expect a similar decline today, with the approach of the current concerns of the size of those fears that had dominated the market during the year 2008; except that the drop in oil prices is still minimal so far, during the period of correction taking place in the market at the present time, did not exceed 12 percent , compared with highs in April / April 2011 ». The question here is, do you delay the collapse of oil prices, sort of, or is there reason to believe that the fundamental factors in the oil market appear to be more coherent than it was in 2008? The second possibility is likely Jafar.
However, these headlines mask the effects of clear and is likely to prevent the arrival of the flow of surplus crude oil to markets. First, it may require the production of Libyan oil to two years or more to return to the previous level of production, according to a survey of the views of experts and analysts conducted by «Reuters»,
due to damage to the oil fields, and its cadres and its facilities during the civil war of Libya.
Second, even if success in the resumption of Libyan oil production quickly; while appreciating the Libyan National Oil Corporation the possibility of producing half a million barrels per day within a few days, and access to one million barrels per day during the year, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia to cut production to compensate for some of these increase; as reported data and the International Energy Agency that Saudi oil production has risen from about 8.75 million barrels a day, to 9.75 million barrels per day during the period between April and July 2011, to compensate for the decline in production Libyan result of the civil war, in the wake of a sustained period of stability of supply Saudi Oil and discipline during the years 2009 and 2010. Thus, it is expected to be policy-makers find little difficulty in the Saudis to stop the adoption of this increase in production and return to previous levels once the Libyan oil supplies back to normal, especially since this increase may threaten the stability of world oil prices.
Third, the current economic concerns centered on the United States and Europe, with Asia leading the growth in global demand for oil; The indicators have not shown any decline in demand in the supply of oil in Asian markets. The International Energy Agency in its recent report issued after the start of decline in equity markets, has raised slightly its forecast for global oil demand, growth steady at 1.4 percent annually through 2011, and 1.8 percent in the year 2012, despite the slowdown in the growth of the global economy